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Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong market, very few anticipated the levels we have seen to date. While both supply and demand forces have acted favorably, the rebound of dry bulk freight rates to multi year highs was primarily demand led. A synchronized record high economic stimulus across the globe, led by China, in order to prop up the economies from the COVID-19 shock was the major catalyst.
The multiplier effect in dry bulk commodities demand came in V shape and materialized into a counter seasonal freight surge to multiyear highs throughout the 1H2021. Furthermore, quarantines related to COVID-19 and elevated congestion have led to fleet inefficiencies across basins, which along with a decelerating dry bulk fleet growth have helped to further tighten the demand supply balance. On the new building front, ordering has been moderate – similar levels with 2020 – steel price surging and solid demand has led Builders to increase their prices, which refrained owners from turning to new buildings.
The global container shipping industry has also recorded a long-awaited increase in demand. An unprecedented shortage in containers amid surging demand for consumer goods since the pandemic started has sent container freight rates to record high levels. Also, port congestion and logistical disruptions exacerbated by the Suez Canal incident have contributed to the surge. With global GDP growth projections revised to 6.0% and savings rates still high, the multiplier effect on container rates should continue in the medium term. Demand will eventually normalize as consumers’ preferences shift back to services with the economies reopening, but freight rates are expected to remain elevated despite a potential gradual softening from record highs.
The turning point will be when high trade costs spill over to prices of final goods and inflation starts hitting consumers’ income. For the time being, global manufacturing PMIs stand at multi-year highs and assuming that we have reached the mid-cycle in PMIs as many analysts have signaled, there will be a lag factor in demand reaction from surging trade costs. We do observe an increase in NB activity (see graph) with orderbook now close to 17% of the fleet, which is not expected to impact the market with accelerating fleet supply growth until later in 2023.
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 15 October 21
GLOBAL STEEL DEMAND GROWTH DOWNGRADED FOR 2021 DUE TO CHINA - WORLD STEEL ASSOCIATION
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that ste ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
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