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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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