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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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