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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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