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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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