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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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