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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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