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Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year-to-date prices, a deficit in the market caused by a recovery in demand, and constrained supply from OPEC+ countries and heightened US capital discipline.
We have also raised our 2021 and 2022 Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas price assumptions. Increases in spot gas prices are being driven by low gas inventories in storage, strong demand in Asia, and recovering demand in Europe. All price assumptions from 2023 are unchanged.
Oil demand has been improving this year and is likely to continue to grow in 2H21 if vaccination rollouts are successful and pandemic-related restrictions are eased. New breakouts, particularly of new Covid-19 variants, remain the main risk for the sustained recovery in demand. Output policies of OPEC+ countries are key to managing oil supply. OPEC+’s planned production increases, originally agreed in April and confirmed in June, will help meet growing demand, but will be insufficient to balance the market in 2H21.
OPEC+ has spare capacity of about 7 million barrels per day (bpd), which should be sufficient to cover increasing demand in the short term. There is some uncertainty over how quickly production could ramp up relative to the pace of the recovery in demand, which may lead to price volatility. Furthermore, lifting of the sanctions against Iran could add about 1.5 million bpd of oil, although we believe that OPEC+ could mitigate the impact of additional output from Iran by slowing production increases.
Despite a rise recently, oil production in the US is still about 1 million bpd lower than in early 2020. US shale producers shifted capital allocation priorities towards debt reduction and measured shareholder returns over growth, which will moderate potential increases of US shale output, at least in the short term. The number of active US oil rigs is only half the pre-pandemic level, but is still about twice as many as in summer 2020.
TTF price rises are supported by strong demand in Asia and recovering demand in Europe (reinforced by cold weather and restocking after the winter), while supply increases have been insufficient to meet recovering demand, leading to low gas inventories in storage. Surging carbon prices in Europe have also contributed to gas price growth.
However, we believe the price rally in 1H21 is temporary. Once gas storage facilities are gradually filled during 2H21 and 2022 to their normal levels, demand should subside, leaving the market oversupplied.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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