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Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
 Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from returning demand while the supply response remains slow and inventories are running low.
Our revision of all iron ore price assumptions is the most significant change and is driven by tight market supply, which we expect to continue in the next couple of years, and the absence of material new projects over a long period that could offset depleting mines. Vale has cut its production guidance for 2021, resulting in no supply response to growing demand, with all large-scale iron ore producers operating at almost full capacity. Inventories are running low, while we expect additional demand linked to US and European economic stimulus packages.
We have increased the short-term copper price assumption due to strategic purchases by the China State Reserve Bureau and supply risks in 2021, including renewals of labour contracts in Chile and Peru, which may result in strikes. Medium-term prices will be supported by balanced market and energy transition trends as copper is used in charging infrastructure, cabling, electric vehicles, wind generators and transformers.
We have increased our zinc price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 due to growing demand in China. Zinc production is price-sensitive and mine supply of concentrates will catch up relatively quickly.
We have raised our aluminium price assumptions for 2021 on a stronger demand recovery in China, particularly from the automotive and solar energy sectors, and re-stocking outside of China, particularly in Europe. However, we expect a production surplus outside of China to persist, causing prices to soften once pent-up demand is satisfied. Prices will recover longer-term due to incremental demand growth.
We have raised gold price assumptions for 2021 and 2022 on increased demand due to investment flows and central bank purchases. We believe that prices will moderate in the medium term to an equilibrium of USD1,200/oz.
The rise in the 2021 coking coal price assumption is due to robust demand from the steel sector, supported by recovering steel production in India, Japan, South Korea and Europe, and rebalanced flows of seaborne coal despite ongoing restrictions on Australian coal imports to China.
We expect coal demand to grow in the medium and long term, but final decisions on new projects were delayed in 2020. This means that capacity expansions that were due to take place in 2021-2023 will be delayed until 2024 or 2025. Supply will therefore remain tight, supporting medium- and long-term price assumptions.
The upward revision of the 2021 Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg coal price assumption reflects strong prices at the start of 2021, which we expect to reduce as demand normalises in the rest of the year. We expect the price to align with our medium-term price assumption in 2022 due to growing renewables and increased approvals for greenfield mines. We have lowered the long-term price reflecting China’s ambition to achieve carbon-neutrality by 2060, meaning that carbon emissions, including those from coal consumption, will peak by 2030.
The revision in the 2021 Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg coal price reflects higher year-to-date prices. However, these will prompt operations at costlier mines to resume leading prices to moderate in line with our medium-term assumptions. The long-term price adjustment reflects a gradually normalising price gap with the Chinese benchmark.
We have raised nickel price assumptions for 2021 due to strong spot prices and our expectation of increasing demand in 2021 for stainless steel; a key consumer of nickel. We have increased our long-term assumption as we expect the increased use of nickel in batteries to lead to a market deficit from 2025.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 13 January 21
COAL TO BE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO INDIA'S $5 TRILLION ECONOMY: AMIT SHAH - BUSINESS STANDARD
The Centre on Monday awarded the letter of allocation to successful bidders of coal mines under the commercial auction held during October-November ...
Monday, 11 January 21
MUTED COAL RECOVERY IN 2021 - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Coal demand is expected to rebound in 2021
Medium-term outlook is less favourable although demand declines are expected to be subtle ...
Sunday, 10 January 21
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 880,000 TONS OF COAL FOR MARCH 2021 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO issued an international tender for total 880 ...
Friday, 08 January 21
INDIA COULD COMPETE AGAINST CHINA IN SOLAR MODULE PRODUCTION WITH THE RIGHT GOVERNMENT SUPPORT - IEEFA
The focus should be on helping manufacturers become globally competitive
Although one of the top 10 solar module producers in the world, India ...
Thursday, 07 January 21
FITCH FORECASTS DOUBLING IN ASIAN WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY BY 2029, TOPPING 1,500GW
Despite some near-term delays due to the Covid-19 pandemic, solar power and offshore wind will drive steep growth in non-hydro renewables in Asia, ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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