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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 "2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbreak leading to lock-downs around the world, the continuation of the trade war between US and China, China's coal ban from Australia, were just a few of them. On the other hand, 2020 also brought record stimulus packages globally, trillions of US Dollars, Euros and Renminbis that were thrown into the race to fight the recession that the corona-virus would bring otherwise. The shipowners and the shipping industry as a whole quickly adapted to the new standards and made the best out of the situation in the second half of last year. Furthermore, the stimulus combined with the newly emerged spending and consuming patterns and of course the COVID-19 vaccination programs around the globe are leading the way back to normality.
The dry bulk market entered 2021 on a high note supported by the broader inflection in commodity prices and increased congestion at discharging ports in China. China’s domestic thermal coal prices hit new record highs, while coal imports from all countries surged to record levels in December, lifting the annual total to its highest since 2013. In past years, Australia has been the country’s second-biggest supplier after Indonesia but the ban on Australian coal - keeping not less than 70 vessels stranded with coal outside China - has been particularly supportive for Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize bulkers, further aided by the rising coastal coal trade in China and alternative to Australia coal origins. Imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, while high utilisation at domestic suppliers is expected to soften high local prices just as colder than average temperatures fade and domestic coal output normalizes.
Another factor to support Panamax and Supramax freight in 2021 is corn and soybean trade. Corn prices have hit multi-year highs on strong demand from China, which has been sourcing increasingly from the US in the context of the Phase 1 trade deal, while production prospects of major suppliers such as Ukraine and Argentina look weaker. US corn futures, a global benchmark, were trading 60% higher from a 10-year low seen in April 2020. The US, the world's largest corn exporter, has seen its 2020-21 total commitments reaching record highs as buyers, again with China leading, rush to secure supplies amid tightening global corn stocks. What is more, Brazil soybean production for 2021 is projected at record high levels, pointing to another strong ECSA export season.
On the supply side, the firm orderbook is currently at a new record low of 5.8% of the fleet (down from approx.10.0% during the same period last year) at 53.4 million dwt or just over 600 vessels, while dry bulk scrap prices surged during the first month of the year, following the broader trend in steel and iron ore prices.
2020 did not offer the best conditions or stability needed for dry new buildings and as such there has been little order replenishment of bulk carriers in 2020 so the orderbook is today smaller than what it was a year ago by about 200 vessels. More specifically, in the new building orderbook out of the about 440 vessels scheduled to be delivered in 2021 only about 350 may actually be delivered assuming a 20% slippage, while there are around 375 trading vessels which are 25 years old or more and thus make candidates for demolition over the next two years. As a result, we project dry bulk fleet to grow by substantially less than 1.5%-2.0% in the next couple of years."
By Theodore Ntalakos,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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