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Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
 China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at domestic suppliers and exceptionally high local prices, says Fitch Ratings. Indonesian coal miners are benefitting as the country is the biggest exporter of thermal coal to China. This also comes amid China's political tensions with its second-largest supplier Australia.
China's coal imports surged to 39.08 million tonnes in December 2020 from 2.77 million tonnes a year earlier, as Beijing relaxed a soft cap on import restrictions to ease supply constraints domestically amid an unusually cold winter, an uptick in economic activity, permit inspections in Inner Mongolia, and a soft cap on Australian coal imports. China's 2020 coal imports rose 1.4% to 304 million tonnes, the highest since 2014. Total thermal power generation rose by 6.6% and 9.2% yoy in November and December 2020, respectively.
China's coal production dropped by 0.1% yoy in 2020. Production in Inner Mongolia, the country's largest coal-producing province in 2019, fell by 3% yoy in 2020 despite the government's policy reversal in October to boost output ahead of the winter. Inner Mongolia's output subsequently rose by 9% yoy to a record high of 97.8 million tonnes in December 2020. The government in January 2021 also urged all coal producers to operate at maximum capacity as long as they can ensure mine safety.
We expect China's coal demand and imports to weaken after the Chinese New Year as temperatures rise and coal production normalises. CRU's analysis of vessel data shows that China's thermal coal imports in the first two weeks of January were already close to 70% of the volume in December 2020. CRU said the seaborne Newcastle 5,500kcal/kg free on board (FOB) coal price rose to a two-year high of USD62 by 26 January 2021 and the Chinese import price for thermal coal, 5,500kcal/kg CFR China, was USD85/tonne, a deep discount to the domestic Qinhuangdao 5,500 kcal/kg FOB price of USD131. Fitch remains bearish on the long-term coal price outlook amid the global push towards carbon neutrality.
More stringent Covid-19 containment measures amid the resurgence of infections in northern China may raise seaborne demand by slowing the shipment of coal from central China to the Bohai Rim ports, according to CRU. Some cities have been asking truck drivers to provide negative Covid-19 test results several days before arriving. That said, we do not expect a repeat of the logistical disruption in early 2020 as local governments have become more sophisticated in implementing control measures to minimise the impact on economic activity.
There may also be a regional supply-demand imbalance, keeping coal prices elevated in the short term. The Chongqing municipal government recently ordered a permanent shutdown of local coal mines, including 11.5 million tonnes of capacity owned by Chongqing Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. (BBB/Stable), by mid-2021. This is likely to tighten coal supply in the southwest region.
Indonesian coal miners are the major beneficiaries of strong Chinese imports. The Indonesian 4,200kcal/kg coal index rose to USD45/tonne in January 2021 from an average of USD26/tonne in the seven months to November 2020. The surge is likely to be short-lived, although Fitch expects a 2021 average price that is higher than 2020 at USD32.5/tonne.
Fitch also expects most Indonesian coal producers to ramp up 1Q21 production in response to the better demand and pricing as they had curtailed production or ceased operations in costlier mines in 2H20. However, the heavy rains and floods in some parts of Kalimantan - Indonesia's key-coal producing region - may hamper the efforts of some coal miners.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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