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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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