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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: CHINA REMAINS THE DRIVING FACTOR, BUT COAL POLICY IS DISRUPTING THE MARKET - PETER SAND, BIMCO
The second half of the year has provided some cheer for the dry bulk market, with all ships in the spot market averaging earnings above the break-e ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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