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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIAN COAL RECOVERING - FITCH
Commenting on Indonesian coal, Fitch Ratings, the Indonesian 4,200 kcal index has begun to recover, improving to over USD 29 in November compared t ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
NEWCASTLE PRICES RECOVER - FITCH
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000 kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD 70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease l ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
APAC COAL PRICES REBOUND ON IMPROVED DEMAND AND SUPPLY CUTS - FITCH RATINGS
Prices for the benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade coal have rebounded to over USD70/tonne since late November as major Asian economies ease loc ...
Tuesday, 15 December 20
CHINA EXTENDS FULL OPEN GESTURE TO IMPORTED COAL EXCEPT FOR AUSTRALIA - GLOBAL TIMES
Domestic, overseas suppliers will take up share with easier clearance
China's top economic planner on Saturday gave approval to ...
Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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