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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Thursday, 17 December 20
BUMA SIGNED US$1.0 BILLION WORTH OF EXTENSION CONTRACT WITH BERAU COAL
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, subsidiary of PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk., has extended its mining services contracts with PT Berau Coal, in relation ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDONESIA 2020 COAL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATED AT 140-145 MLN TONNES - OFFICIAL, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia’s domestic coal consumption is estimated at 140-145 million tonnes this year, Dodik Ariyanto, an official at the energy ministry, t ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
RUSSIA REVISES DOWN EXPORT EXPECTATION - FITCH
The Ministry of Economy of Russia, the world’s third largest thermal coal exporting country, released its annual forecasts ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
INDIAN COAL IMPORTS TO REMAIN SUBDUED - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Rating commented on Indian Coal Imports, Fitch said, coal imports by Indian utilities fell by about 24% yoy to 44 million tonnes (mt) i ...
Wednesday, 16 December 20
CHINA TO BOOST DOMESTIC SUPPLY - FITCH
China’s benchmark Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg coal price rose above the government’s upper yellow interval of CNY600/tonne in early Octobe ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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