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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Monday, 21 December 20
A REBOUND IN GLOBAL COAL DEMAND IN 2021 IS SET TO BE SHORT-LIVED, BUT NO IMMEDIATE DECLINE IN SIGHT - IEA
After a major drop in recent years, global coal demand is forecast to rise by 2.6% in 2021 before flattening out to 2025
A global ec ...
Friday, 18 December 20
AUSTRALIA PM WARNS OF ‘LOSE-LOSE’ IN ANY CHINA COAL SHIFT - REUTERS
Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said any shift by China away from importing high quality Australian coal would be a “lose-lose&rdquo ...
Friday, 18 December 20
BIG OIL AND COAL EXPORTERS FACE RECKONING AS PARIS AGREEMENT TURNS FIVE - CNA
On Dec 12, more than 70 global leaders came together at the UN’s Climate Ambition Summit, marking the fifth anniversary of the Paris Agreemen ...
Friday, 18 December 20
SOUTH AFRICAN COAL EXPORTERS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE ASIAN MARKETS - BANCHERO COSTA
South Africa is the fourth largest exporter of coal in the world, after Australia, Indonesia and Russia. In calendar 2019 the country exported a to ...
Thursday, 17 December 20
CHINA'S BAN IS LESS OF A THREAT TO AUSTRALIA'S COAL INDUSTRY THAN INTERNATIONAL CLIMATE AMBITION - IEEFA
Australian coal exporters will survive this near-term political fight but there are longterm structural headwinds
The decision by Ch ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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