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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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