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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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