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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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