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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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