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Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
 High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power shortfalls seen recently in parts of the country are unlikely to drive large-scale shifts in investment plans, as the problems reflect weak peak-load flexibility rather than structural power shortages.
Total power consumption rose 9.4% yoy in November 2020, according to the China Electricity Council, and peak loads have reached record levels for many regional grids. Demand for power has been supported by robust economic growth, but also by unusually cold conditions that have bolstered demand for heating.
A variety of supply factors have also contributed to the power shortages. In areas such as Hunan, renewables contributions, particularly from hydropower, have been weak as a result of weather conditions. Regulatory pressures to curb thermal power carbon dioxide emissions in order to meet targets under the 13th Five Year Plan (ending in 2020) have also played a role in regions like Zhejiang.
Coal market dynamics have aggravated the situation. The government’s supply-side reform agenda has sought to improve the underlying stability of domestic coal markets by trimming excess supply, but in the near term this has reduced capacity to meet spikes in demand. Supplies have been dented further by tougher mining permit reviews and safety checks in Inner Mongolia, an important production region, and the impact of cold weather on transport systems and production in northern China.
Restrictions on imports of thermal coal from Australia may also have played a role at the margin. Such imports are small relative to total demand, and China has increased coal imports from other producers like Indonesia, but the curbs may have increased the vulnerability of local coal prices to demand spikes.
Meanwhile, in some provinces gas-fired power plants have failed to play their usual role in smoothing peak-load adjustments, as gas supplies were prioritised for heating in northern China. Gas-fired power’s contribution to generation has risen in January as additional gas has been sourced for heating, easing supply constraints.
There is no fuel-cost pass-through for coal. High energy prices will thus dampen near-term profitability among generating companies (gencos) with greater reliance on coal. This could affect Fitch-rated companies such as China Huaneng Group (A/Stable), China Huadian Corporation (A/Stable), State Power Investment Corporation (A/Stable), Guangdong Energy Group (A/Stable) and Zhejiang Provincial Energy (A/Stable). However, strong demand should raise capacity utilisation and reduce the price discount on market-traded power, offsetting the impact slightly.
Upstream producers such as Yanzhou Coal (BB-/Rating Watch Positive) and the three national oil companies should benefit from these same dynamics. However, we still expect coal prices to trend lower in the longer term, as the government remains committed to reducing coal’s share in the national energy mix.
The State Council stated on 8 January that development of natural gas and coal storage facilities, and emergency back-up power systems, would be accelerated. We have already budgeted high levels of capex for most power gencos in the medium term, focused mostly on renewable energy, and do not expect to change our forecasts significantly owing to the recent disruption. In addition, we do not expect substantial additional investment in LNG storage, but believe the government will accelerate approvals for new gas storage facilities and slow the phase-out of coal-fired power plants.
The government may also encourage provinces with power shortages to make greater use of imports, which could benefit issuers from surplus regions like Gansu Province Electric Power Investment (BBB-/Stable). Inter-provincial ultra-high-voltage distribution lines are available, but have been underutilised during the current situation as the supporting coal-fired power has not been available.
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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