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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 04 November 21
FASTER DECARBONISATION: BACK TO BASICS FOR THE MINING INDUSTRY? - WOOD MACKENZIE
To the uninitiated, rugby is a technical and complicated game. As young schoolboys it was all a wee bit confusing and we invariably ended up on the ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA TO LAUNCH NEW DATA MONITORING SYSTEM, TARGETING COAL MARKET SPECULATION, HOARDING - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s top economic planner announced on Sunday a new data system for supervising the implementation of medium- and long-term contracts of c ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
CHINA’S STATE PLANNER SAYS COAL SUPPLY IMPROVING, PRICES STABILISING - REUTERS
China’s coal supply situation has seen significant improvement with joint efforts from coal producers, logistics and downstream users, while ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
HIGHER COKING COAL PRICES TO PARE PROFITABILITY OF STEELMAKERS IN SECOND HALF OF FY22 - CRISIL RATINGS
The operating margin of primary steelmakers will reduce by a third to 24-26% in the second half of this fiscal versus the first half as input cost ...
Wednesday, 03 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
November is here and soon the all time seasonal favorite “all I want or Christmas is you” by Mariah Carey will be played in radio stati ...
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- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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