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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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