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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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