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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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