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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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