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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the start of the pandemic. According to EIA data, oil consumption will reach this year 92.91 million bpd, almost 8.5% lower compared to last year and at its lowest point since 2013,said Allied research in its latest report.
At the same time, world oil production is estimated to have fallen to 94.42 million bpd, leaving a surplus in the market of approximately 1.5 million bpd. This imbalance between demand and supply in the market has resulted in a profound drop in freight rates for tankers as of late, with the low oil prices though curbing somewhat the decline as key importers, such as China, look to build up stock at favorable pricing terms.
According to Allied, for next year, all estimates are pointing to a strong rebound, with the latest data forecasting that global demand will climb to 98.80 million bpd (a 6.3% growth). The end of the pandemic will undoubtedly revive global consumption, with demand for some oil products such as jet fuel, diesel and gasoline boosted, as people begin travelling and going back to business as usual.
This concurs with refining throughput data, with the global figure for 2019 standing at 81.9 million bpd, while in 2020 this figure fell to around 74.3 million bpd. A gradual recovery for next year is expected to regain only around 4.9 million bpd of this lost output. Two of the most important petroleum products are motor gasoline and diesel, where we witnessed a major decline this year. In particular, motor gasoline consumption in the US is estimated to have dropped to its lowest point since 1997, reaching 8.14 million bpd, while distillate fuel oil consumption also dropped by a record rate of 8.3%. A very impressive fact considering that the number of registered motor vehicles in the US increased by around 30% since then.
These figures all point to the impact of the pandemic on vehicle movements, as road travelling was minimized. However, it is also highlighting the structural shift from gasoline/diesel engines to electrical vehicles, with the latter having increased to 727,000 vehicles in 2019, a rise of 165% since 2010. This is reflected on the consumption data, as the average y-o-y growth during the period 2000 -2010 for gasoline was 0.6%, while the respective figure for 2010-2020 is estimated at -0.9%. This trend is also being witnessed in China, where the average y-o-y growth rate has declined about 1% for gasoline and 5.5% for distillate fuel oil this decade, with the drop being particularly evident since 2015. Identically, the total demand for gasoline in the EU has fallen by 18.7% between 2010 and 2019 and diesel/gasoil volumes by 1%. Moving on to jet fuel, the annual drop this year is estimated to also be at record levels. Here, we have seen a decrease of approximately 38% in the US for this year, with consumption reaching historical lows. Estimates for next year are for a rise back to 1.56 million bpd, though still below any recent figures. However, consumption hare has been much more resilient, as demand for air travel has increased massively with alternative fuels being minimal so far. Nevertheless, it is only a matter of time before measures for the decarbonization of the aviation industry start taking effect.
In the following years, the necessity for close assessment of demand and supply balance will be even more vital for the tanker market, given that consumption rebound in the coming years is at best going to just boost figures on par to those noted during 2015-2019. This inevitably leaves for minimal growth potential in a sector that is currently finding itself in the midst of a major supply glut.
Yiannis Vamvakas
Research Analyst
Allied Shipping Research
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Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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