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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 14 October 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The tanker market has experienced severe freight rate and asset value declines over the past 5 months. A potential market upturn may arise in the c ...
Friday, 09 October 20
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT, BUT RECOVERY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
India’s coal imports, depressed by the impact of coronavirus this year, regained ground in September, but in an uneven uptick – shipmen ...
Thursday, 08 October 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FROM INDONESIA DECLINED 16.4% Y-O-Y, TO 80.2 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
China's coal imports boomed in 2019, surprising many who had expected the government would clamp down strictly on shipments.
...
Thursday, 08 October 20
GLIMMER OF LIGHT FOR COAL, BUT SHORT TERM - FNARENA
Is coal on the rebound? Demand appears stronger and supply reductions have underpinned a tightening market. Certainly, the Newcastle thermal coal p ...
Wednesday, 07 October 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO DECREASE BY 26 PERCENT IN 2020 COMPARED TO 2019 - EIA
EIA expects total U.S. coal production in 2020 to be 525 million short tons (MMst), compared with 705 MMst in 2019, a 26% decrease.
COVID-19 a ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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