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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 02 December 20
INDONESIA CONSIDERING CLOSING 3,400MW SURALAYA COAL PLANT - THE JAKARTA POST
The government is considering to shut down the aging Suralaya coal-fired power plant (PLTU) in Cilegon, Banten, and replace it with green energy, a ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It has been another busy week in the dry bulk secondhand market; a healthy number of sales reported predominantly from Japanese owners while owner& ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
DECLINE IN COAL EXPORTS ADDS TO NAVAJO-OWNED COMPANY'S PROBLEMS - IEEFA U.S.
Weak demand and low prices are likely creating steep losses for NTEC
U.S. coal exports to Asia—once heralded as the saving gra ...
Thursday, 26 November 20
COAL FINANCING QUICKLY DRYING UP WORLDWIDE - ANALYSTS : REUTERS
Financing for coal projects is drying up at ever increasing rates as more countries target zero carbon emissions amid an energy transition sweeping ...
Wednesday, 25 November 20
LIBOR REPLACEMENT AND SHIP FINANCE - WHERE IS IT HEADING? - WFW
The likely replacement of the LIBOR at the end of 2021 creates difficult technical and practical issues for all sectors of business and finance. Th ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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