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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 December 20
PHILIPPINE BANK RCBC TO STOP LENDING FOR NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PROJECTS - MANILA BULLETIN
Yuchengco-led Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) has forthrightly declared that it will no longer extend financing to new coal-fired power ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
LONGSTANDING DOWNSIDE RISKS TO TRADE OUTLOOK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The OECD has attempted to put a positive spin on the trade message emanating from its latest economic outlook, released last week.
The ...
Sunday, 13 December 20
INDONESIA COAL OUTPUT AT 514 MILLION TONNES THIS YEAR, 2021 TARGET UNCHANGED - REUTERS
Indonesia coal output in the period to Dec. 10 stood at 514.2 million tonnes, official data from the energy ministry’s website showed.
&n ...
Thursday, 10 December 20
MALAYSIA'S CIMB ANNOUNCES COAL FINANCING PHASE-OUT BY 2040 AS ASIA'S FOSSIL FUEL DIVESTMENT DRIVE ACCELERATES - IEEFA
The first emerging markets bank to announce a progressive coal exit policy
Malaysia’s CIMB Group Holdings (CIMB) has announced ...
Wednesday, 09 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Heading towards the end of a difficult year and with the entire planet under the shadow of the covid-19 virus, it is interesting to proceed with a ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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