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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 08 December 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED SHIPPING
It is now undisputed that oil consumption for 2020 will post a considerable drop, as demand for several petroleum products has plummeted since the ...
Tuesday, 08 December 20
PANAMAX: THE OVERALL MARKET SEEMS TO BE UNDER NEGATIVE PRESSURE - ALLIED
Capesize
A rather indifferent week for the Capesize market, with BCI 5TC figure finishing the week with slight losses of 0.8%. The Atlantic enj ...
Friday, 04 December 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 04 December 20
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE REACHES THREE MONTH HIGH ON IMPROVING DEMAND OUTLOOK
COALspot.com: The Indonesia Coal Price Reference reaches three month high on improving demand outlook . The Indonesia Coal Price Reference rose by& ...
Wednesday, 02 December 20
GLOBAL MINING SECTOR OUTLOOK STABLE DUE TO CHINA'S RECOVERY - FITCH RATINGS
China’s post-pandemic economic recovery and sizeable infrastructure-focused government stimulus boosted global metals and mining prices, help ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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