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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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