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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 01 December 23
COAL MINERS GROUP EXPECTS INDONESIA’S 2023 COAL OUTPUT TO SURPASS TARGET - REUTERS
The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (ICMA) expects the country’s 2023 coal output to surpass the official target of 695 million metric ton ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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