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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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