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Wednesday, 04 November 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 As the end of the year approaches, one would definitely notice that the newbuilding orderbook for bulk carriers is significantly smaller compared to the levels of the same period last year; a year where newbuilding orders were also down compared to the year before.
Starting with the Handysize sector, a total number of 109 units are on order compared to the 127 units for the same period last year (5% vs 4% today in terms of orderbook to fleet ratio). In the Supra-Ultra segment, 233 ships were on order last year vs 188 units until today (5% of the fleet today vs 7% the year before). Moreover, regarding Panamax-Kamsarmax front is concerned, from a total orderbook of 193 ships last year, the current one now consists of 121 ships (9% vs 5% today). Finally, the orderbook of Capes/Newcastlemax stands today at 126 units vs 201 ships during the same period last year (7% and 12% of the existing fleet respectively).
Although the slow newbuilding contracting activity is evident and welcomed by all dry bulk ship owners, it is very interesting to undergo a more detailed research of the reasons that led to the above slump of orders. Initially, the fresh capital that used to come from investors, who are not directly related to the shipping industry, has dried up. With returns falling below expectations or being negative, the appetite for participation in newbuilding projects has gradually decreased.
Another reason is the absence of a breakthrough technology that would bring a meaningful improvement in new building designs, which are pretty much the same during the past 5 years. Notwithstanding that the most important “known- unknown” is still the next modus of propulsion. As a result, the shipping industry’s “divided” view on the commercial and long-term implementation feasibility of ESG in maritime transportation remains present, with shipping participants unable to reach a consensus on what type of fuel will the next generation ships use. Hence several owners adopt a “wait and see” approach while monitoring the new developments in the sector.
In addition to the above, another important reason why newbuilding orders are low, is definitely the low price of 5-yrs old ships compared to newbuilding prices. Ship builders are more inelastic on prices compared to the prices of modern second hand units which in today’s dynamic SnP market fluctuate in line with the freight market that has been extremely volatile over the past two years. Consequently, a significant amount of SnP transactions of modern ships have materialized. Specifically, 44 ships less or equal to 5-yrs old have been sold during 2019 and 44 in 2020 so far with prices mainly trading at a discount over newbuilding prices, which is as a disincentive for owners to order new ships.
All in all, bearing in mind all the above and in combination with the current low fleet-orderbook ratio, it seems that dry bulk owners should stop worrying about the supply of new ships, and focus on how many ships exit the market for recycling. That being said, an increase in scrapping activity will definitely boost freight rates further, and a bull market might be just around the corner.
By Ilias M. Lalaounis
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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