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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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