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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 24 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
With yields of up to 563%, the shares of Greek shipping companies listed on Wall Street are recorded. The Coronavirus pandemic has not significantl ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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