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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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