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Wednesday, 30 September 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Spot rates for Capesize bulk carriers received a significant boost last week, however, there are certain reservations in the market regarding the potential levels we will see during the last quarter of the year. When looking at the iron ore market we notice various positive fundamentals driving and supporting the long term dynamics that are in turn, having an impact on the freight levels for the commodity.
Iron ore prices have now declined after surging to their highest levels in more than six years earlier in September this year, on the back of supply disruptions in Brazil and record steel output in China. Market watchers have warned of a possible near-term slowdown in prices this month, though major financial institutions and analysts have mentioned that strong Chinese demand will most likely support prices for the rest of the year. China’s dominance in iron ore consumption gives it considerable capacity to set global prices. Chinese steel production is forecasted to drop slightly to 987 million tonnes this year, before potentially rebounding to more than 1 billion tons in 2021. China imports more than 70% of seaborne iron ore to feed its steel industry -which is the world’s most prominent.
On the supply side, Australia is dominant as it tops global annual iron ore exports. The commodity earns the country a substantial AUD100 billion in annual revenue. Sources in Australia are expecting elevated iron ore prices for the next two years. It is projected that commodity exports of the country will again thrive in the year ahead, which highlights the economic opportunity presented by the absence of a high number of coronavirus cases in Western Australia - which is responsible for the vast majority of Australia's iron ore production. Australian miners have been enjoying the strongest iron ore prices in six years on the back of record Chinese demand and supply disruptions in Brazil, where dam safety and issues caused by the pandemic have adversely affected output levels.
Also underpinning iron ore prices in the short term are constraints on Brazilian supply. Vale SA is now facing tougher regulatory requirements following the consequences of the dam disaster coupled with the current coronavirus situation which is derailing production plans. In view of the above and the overall economic fundamentals, the country’s production is not expected to return to “normal” levels until late 2022. That being said, iron ore prices rose as high as $US130 a tonne in the past two months. Analysts predicted that iron ore would hold around $US100 a tonne "over coming months" and would gradually decline to be closer to $US85 a tonne by June 2021.
Given China’s important role in the dry bulk market and in particular it’s influence on the freight levels of the Capesize segment, it is always interesting to keep an eye on its development and recovery in industrial production. China’s intensive import levels have, so far, been enough to support market fundamentals and rates. However, volatility is still there for the dry bulk market and hopefully the rest of the world will also follow suit in the recovery wave at some point soon.
By Christopher Whitty
Director, Towage & Marine Port Services
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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