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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
Monday, 29 June 20
CHINA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: MANY MOVING PARTS, FORECAST TO FALL 10% YOY - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
China’s coal demand declined in the first quarter of 2020. According to the China National Coal Association, the country consumed 870mt in th ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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