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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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