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Wednesday, 05 August 20
SLUMP IN OIL REVENUE CHALLENGES MIDDLE EAST OIL EXPORTERS - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 pandemic has had far-reaching consequences on the global capital markets. Despite the US government’s efforts for a quick and decisive response to Covid-19, unemployment rates rocketed to unprecedented figures. This was a key contributor to the near one-third shrinkage of the economy. Driving restrictions within the US and the decline in countrywide GDP have adversely affected gasoline and oil demand throughout the nation.
Being one of the most predominant global crude oil consumers, South Korea has seen its exports plummet to significant lows. This is likely to cause a nationwide recession which will further reduce global demand for oil. Chinese oil demand has gradually softened thus reducing the price per oil barrel in Asia. At the same time, derivative markets which add value to North Sea crude oil grades, are in a frail state.
The oil consumption outlook does not appear to be any better in Europe, with Finnish refiner Neste Oyj predicting that demand for oil products will remain “severely reduced” in the third quarter. Despite the recent historic deal between OPEC+ nations to cut global oil output, crude oil remains priced at around $40/barrel. Energy analyst C. Markits predicts an average price of $43/barrel for Brent in July; this figure may rise to $50 by December provided that oil demand will begin to recover. However, this is just one of many highly speculative scenarios.
The IMF argues that plunging crude prices coupled with global production cuts are expected to significantly affect oil exporters in the Middle East and North Africa. Combined oil income for these exporting regions is projected to decrease by $270 billion y-o-y from 2019. According to S&P Global Ratings, country members of the Gulf Cooperation Council are set to accumulate a combined $490 billion in government deficits between 2020 and 2023.
Responses to the economic shock
Saudi Arabia tripled its VAT in the past month in an effort to reverse the deficit and revive its economy. This is expected to reduce its deficit by $27 billion. At the same time, the government announced the suspension of cost-of-living allowances for its employees. Additionally, several governmental operational and capital expenditures will either be cancelled, extended, or postponed whereas major projects will materialize under strictly reduced provisions. Saudi Arabia plans to privatize state-held assets in healthcare, education and water utility sectors to raise additional funds. Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan argued at a Bloomberg forum that Arabian exporters could receive billions from such privatizations over the next five years.
Kuwait - which is one of the world’s wealthiest countries - is also facing a severe budget crunch. After having a running deficit that could reach 40 per cent of its economy this year, the Kuwaiti Finance Ministry is seeking permission from parliament to tap global debt markets for as much as $65 billion. However, Kuwait’s options are limited. The General Reserve Fund has been used aggressively in recent months. This has left its liquid assets in a vulnerable state and they could be further depleted within the current fiscal year, or by April 2021.
By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 29 June 20
ULTRAMAX: A 58,000 FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA EAST COAST INDIA, REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $12,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
As the halfway mark of 2020 arrives, the capesize market is making new highs for the year. From persistent lows earlier caused by a ba ...
Saturday, 27 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINS FLAT - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price remained flat during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 26 June 20
WHAT TODAY'S BAILOUTS CAN DO FOR TOMORROW'S ECONOMIES - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
The COVID-19 crisis provides an opportunity for governments to build fairer, more sustainable and more resilient economies.
Governments a ...
Thursday, 25 June 20
ALL YOU WANT TO KNOW ABOUT COAL MINE AUCTIONS - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
Last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi threw open the auction of 41 coal blocks for commercial mining. The decision, which was part of the announc ...
Wednesday, 24 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The World Bank estimates that the global economy will fall by 5.2% this year, underlining that the Covid-19 pandemic has had rapid and massive cons ...
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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