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Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraints in travelling and broader economic activity have resulted in the decline of global oil demand. The existing turmoil does not allow market participants to come to safe conclusions on what the final impact in the economy and total oil demand will be.
On the global supply side, record output cuts from OPEC and deep declines from other non-OPEC producers saw global oil production deteriorating. Respectively, global oil output is calculated to increase by 1.7mb/d in 2021 subject to OPEC cuts and basis Norway’s and Brazil’s deliveries. On the other hand, USA supply is estimated to decrease by almost 1 mb/d in 2020 except if further investments arise for the shale industry. The global refinery intake was close to 69 mb/d up to the end of April and overall, down by 12 mb/d on y-o-y basis. Further to that, product stocks raised sharply with OECD recording increases of oil stocks close to 4.9 md/d in April while floating storage for crude oil fell in May. Moreover, OPEC decided in June to extend their output cut close to 10 mb/d throughout July focusing on rebalancing the market. Crude prices rose in May to the highest seen in the past three months as demand resumed and global supply fell strongly. Rising prices compressed products such as diesel, jet and kerosene due to the weak outlook for the aviation industry while freight rates plunged as OPEC cuts took effect.
While the oil market remains fragile, the recent recovery in oil prices implies that the first half of 2020 will end in a more positive outlook than expected. On the demand side, China’s exit from lockdown restrictions has resulted in a demand recovery in April touching 2019 levels. In addition, we have witnessed a strong boost in Indians demand in May, however it is still well below year-ago levels. In the second half of the year, easing of global lockdown measures should give a boost to the oil market. Even so, demand in 2020 is expected to be 8.1 mb/d lower compared to 2019, with the biggest declines being reported in the first half of the year.
The IEA has developed two scenarios on how global oil demand could evolve this year. In the more pessimistic scenario, global measures will fail to contain the virus, and global demand will fall by 730,000 b/d in 2020. In a more optimistic case, the virus is contained quickly around the world, and global demand will grow by 480,000 b/d. Covid-19 impact on oil markets may be temporary, but the longer-term challenges that suppliers will face are not going away, especially for those that are heavily dependent on both oil and gas revenues.
To sum up, as we are beyond the first half of 2020 and measures such as the OPEC agreement and the meeting of G20 energy ministers have provided a major contribution to the efforts for restoring stability to the market, if recent trends in production are maintained and demand does recover, the market will stabilize by the end of the second half. The short-term outlook for the oil market will ultimately depend on how quickly governments will move to contain the corona-virus outbreak, how successful their efforts will be, and what impact the global health crisis will have on economic growth.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms Eva Tzima
Mr.George Panagopoulos
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 21 August 20
BHP COMMITS TO SELLING ITS THERMAL COALMINES WITHIN TWO YEARS - THE GUARDIAN
Move follows pressure from investors but company stops short of full exit from coalmining
BHP has announced it plans to sell off its ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
MINER BHP CONFIRMS PLANS TO EXIT THERMAL COAL SECTOR - THE SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
The head of mining giant BHP has laid out plans for a reshaping of its global operations by seeking to quit thermal coal mining, offload some cokin ...
Thursday, 20 August 20
LONDON RETAINS ARBITER CROWN - BALTIC EXCHANGE | HFW
Fears that the UK’s decision to leave the European Union would dent the reputation of the nation’s capital as the leader in maritime ar ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
U.S. COAL STOCKPILES STEADILY INCREASE AFTER REACHING LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE IN 2019 - EIA
After reaching their lowest level in more than a decade in March 2019, U.S. coal stockpiles steadily increased to 152 million tons in April 2020, r ...
Wednesday, 19 August 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.26 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.92 points Monday, down 0.26 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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