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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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