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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Saturday, 06 June 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR MIN 5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 270,000 Tons (MT) min. 5600 NCV co ...
Friday, 05 June 20
COAL INDIA ESTIMATES PRODUCTION GROWTH BY OVERBURDEN REMOVAL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
PSU miner Coal India (CIL) has now limited mining only to Overburden Removal (OBR) with falling demand of coal. The mining behemoth is now keeping ...
Friday, 05 June 20
U.S. SANCTIONS COMPLIANCE GUIDANCE RELEASED FOR THE GLOBAL MARITIME, ENERGY AND METALS SECTORS - AKIN GUMP
Key Points
On May 14, 2020, OFAC, the Department of State and the U.S. Coast Guard jointly released guidance for persons involved in the ma ...
Friday, 05 June 20
IN THE FIRST 5 MONTHS OF 2020 AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 6.8 MLN TONNES TO VIETNAM - BANCHERO COSTA
In the first 5 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -8% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Ref ...
Thursday, 04 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
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Showing 926 to 930 news of total 6871 |
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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