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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 11 June 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
OPEC+ CUTS EXTENSION TO ACCELERATE MARKET REBALANCING - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-London-08 June 2020: The OPEC+ agreement to extend by one month record oil production cuts should accelerate market rebalancing, Fitc ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In contrast to the economic projections of the past two years for the first half of 2020, the oil & gas industry and those involved in it faced ...
Wednesday, 10 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.19 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.71 points Monday, down 0.19 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Tuesday, 09 June 20
BUNKER SUPPLY CONTRACTS - KEY CONSIDERATIONS FOR THE BUYER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Regardless of whether a buyer purchases fuel directly from physical suppliers or via brokers or traders and whether sale ...
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Showing 916 to 920 news of total 6871 |
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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