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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 02 June 20
THE HISTORIC DECLINE OF US COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
The first commercial power plant in the US was Thomas Edison’s coal-fired Pearl Street station in lower Manhattan, which started operating in ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
COAL INDIA'S MAY SALES DRIVEN SHARPLY LOWER BY SLUMP IN POWER DEMAND - REUTER
Coal India’s sales fell 23.3% in May as utilities refrained from purchases amid record stockpiles and tepid demand because of a nationwide lo ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
TUAH TURANGGA AGUNG RECORDED 4.54 MILLION TONS OF COAL SALES IN THE FIRST FOUR MONTHS OF 2020
PT United Tractors Tbk through its subsidiary, PT Tuah Turangga Agung recorded 4.54 million tons of coal sales in the first four months of 2020, up ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
SOURING SINO-AUSTRALIA TRADE RELATIONS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Cooling relations between the commodity powerhouses of China and Australia may point to trade troubles ahead when the world emerges from the Covid- ...
Tuesday, 02 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.86 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 123.95 points Monday, down 0.86 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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