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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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Showing 921 to 925 news of total 6871 |
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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