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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Tuesday, 09 June 20
INDIA: COAL IMPORT DROPS BY 20% TO NEARLY 19 MILLION TONNES IN MAY, SAYS REPORT - HINDUSTAN TIMES
The country’s coal import dropped by 20 per cent to 18.93 million tonnes (MT) last month, industry data showed.
The government ...
Monday, 08 June 20
WOOD MACKENZIE: THE INDISPENSABLE OPEC+
Rumours of “the death of OPEC” have been circulating for almost as long as the organisation has existed. Just three years after the car ...
Monday, 08 June 20
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS FALL NEARLY 20% IN MAY EVEN AS DEMAND RISES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports in May fell nearly 20% compared with a year earlier even as demand recovered at power plants and industrial users, custo ...
Monday, 08 June 20
JUNE 2020 INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE HIT US$ 52.98 A TON, ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE AT LEAST AUGUST 2016
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Sunday, 07 June 20
A SCRUBBER FITTED 61,000 ULTRAMAX WAS FIXED DELIVERY PHILIPPINES TRIP VIA SOUTH AFRICA REDELIVERY VIETNAM AT $9,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The small flicker of hope at the beginning of this week has kindled a small fire under the Capesize market. At a paltry $3369 from the ...
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Showing 921 to 925 news of total 6871 |
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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