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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 17 June 20
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER CO INVITED 80000 MT OF LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR AUGUST 1H, 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 80,000 Metric Tons (MT) Min 4,200 kcal/kg - Max. ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC SLUMP: WHAT WILL IT MEAN FOR METALS AND MINING? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Back before coronavirus knocked “normal” out cold, the key issues for miners were sub-investment prices, rising requirements for ESG an ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.58 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.43 points Monday, up 0.58 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
HIGHER IRON ORE PRICES OFFSET CORONAVIRUS-DRIVEN PRODUCTION RISK - FITCH RATINGS
Lower iron ore production in Brazil, resulting from rising coronavirus infections, should only marginally affect the cash flow of Vale and other gl ...
Tuesday, 16 June 20
SHALE SHOCKED - WOOD MACKENZIE
Capturing shut-ins in real time
Oil markets are searching for balance as the world reflects on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. ...
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Showing 906 to 910 news of total 6871 |
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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