We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Tuesday, 07 July 20
WHAT DOES THE PATHWAY TO A NET-ZERO ECONOMY LOOK LIKE FOR MINERS? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wind, solar, electric vehicles, stationary storage and transmission are all central to achieving the Paris Agreement decarbonisation goals.
&nb ...
Monday, 06 July 20
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN FREE FALL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down again the benchmark price of Indonesian th ...
Monday, 06 July 20
SUPRAMAX: A 58,000-DWT FIXING DELIVERY VIETNAM TRIP VIA INDONESIA RE-DELIVERY WEST INDIA IN THE LOW $4,000S
Capesize
The Capesize market continues to go from strength to strength, as rates reach highs not seen since September last year. The rally is p ...
Thursday, 02 July 20
PRIVATE COAL MINING MAY SEE WEAK INVESTOR SENTIMENT: ICRA - LIVEMINT
The prospects of commercial coal mining in India may be dimmer than initially expected because of the expected shift in India’s energy mix fr ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
THERMAL COAL OPTIONS TRADING LAUNCHED IN CHINA'S ZHENGZHOU - XINHUA
Thermal coal options started trading on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) in central China’s Henan Province Tuesday.
It i ...
|
|
|
Showing 881 to 885 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
