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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 10 July 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Friday, 10 July 20
GLOBAL SHIPPING EARNINGS FORECAST CUT AS SUPPLY SET TO OUTSTRIP DEMAND - MOODY'S
EBITDA forecast worsens, keeping outlook negative. We now expect the aggregate EBITDA of rated shipping companies to fall by around 16%-18% in 2020 ...
Friday, 10 July 20
SLOW RECOVERY IN TANKER RATES TO WEIGH ON BUANA LINTAS LAUTAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings believes that international tanker rates are likely improve after their sharp fall since May 2020, albeit at a slow pace. The weaknes ...
Wednesday, 08 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
During the previous month, the dry bulk market witnessed an impressive increase in the BDI index that has reached 1800 points from 500 with a clear ...
Tuesday, 07 July 20
COAL INDIA WORKERS STRIKE CUTS OUTPUT BY 56%: OFFICIAL - REUTERS
A strike at Coal India Ltd cut production by 56% in the three days ending July 4 as workers oppose opening up coal mining to the private sector, a ...
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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