We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 01 July 20
COLOMBIA'S COAL EXPORT VOLUMES HAVE STEADILY DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS - BANCHERO COSTA
Colombia is the world’s fifth largest seaborne exporter of coal, coming after Australia, Indonesia, Russia and the USA.
Export ...
Wednesday, 01 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It was beginning of 2020 – close to 6 months from now – when we first experienced the huge impact of the COVID 19 outbreak on Ship Repa ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDONESIAN COAL AT THE MERCY OF THE DRAGON AND TIGER - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
Coal sector analysts have been busy in recent months mapping the negative impact of low coal prices from the COVID-19 pandemic on Indonesian coal c ...
Monday, 29 June 20
FALLING DEMAND IN CHINA AND INDIA SIGNAL TOUGH TIMES AHEAD FOR INDONESIAN EXPORTS - GHEE PEH | EEFA
Assessing the Impact on Indonesian Coal Companies
The bad news for Indonesia’s coal companies is that they are likely to have ...
Monday, 29 June 20
INDIA COAL IMPORT OUTLOOK: WEAK DEMAND, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, EXPECT 20% YOY DECLINE - GHEE PEH | IEEFA
For India, the coal demand indicators have clearly turned negative.
According to Argus Media, since the government declared a ...
|
|
|
Showing 886 to 890 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
