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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Wednesday, 15 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS FALL 6.7% Y/Y ON PORT CURBS - REUTERS
China’s coal imports dropped 6.7% in June from the same period last year, as stringent import restrictions at ports impeded purchases by trad ...
Wednesday, 15 July 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The Covid-19 virus spread around the world has obviously impacted the global oil demand while the situation remains fluid. The overall constraint ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.75 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 126.01 points Monday, up 0.75 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Tuesday, 14 July 20
TURKEY - A CASE OF UNDECLARED BUNKER - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Undeclared/excess bunkers can be considered a criminal act by Turkish customs officials with the ship's crew being ac ...
Monday, 13 July 20
PANAMAX: A TUMULTUOUS WEEK IN THE PANAMAX MARKET ENSURED ALL MARKETS GAINED VALUE ON THE WEEK - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week witnessed the dreaded correction in the Capesize market, with the time charter average shedding almost 18 per cent to close ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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