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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Friday, 24 July 20
IPA: THERMAL COAL IMPORTS AT MAJOR PORTS DECLINE 35 PC TO 17.71 MT IN APR TO JUNE - ECONOMIC TIMES
These ports had handled 27.13 MT of thermal coal and 14.95 MT of coking coal in the April-June period of the previous financial year
...
Thursday, 23 July 20
KOREAN GENCOS INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 1.36 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR OCTOBER 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf of EWP, KOSPO, KOSEP and KOWEPO has issued an international tender for total 1,360,00 ...
Wednesday, 22 July 20
CIL'S COAL SUPPLY TO POWER SECTOR DROPS OVER 21% TO 93.5 MT IN APR-JUN QUARTER - PTI
The supply of coal by state-owned Coal India Ltd to the power sector fell 21.7 percent to 93.5 million tonnes (MT) in the first quarter of the ongo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 2.520 MILLION MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO), has issued an international tender for total 840,000 of Bituminous Coal to be used at Bo ...
Monday, 20 July 20
CHINA'S JUNE COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.2% YEAR-ON-YEAR OVER ILLEGAL MINING CHECKS - REUTERS
China’s coal output dropped 1.2% in June on the year to 330 million tonnes, official data showed, as major coal mining areas cracked down on ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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