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Saturday, 20 June 20
WORLD OIL DEMAND IS PROJECTED TO DECREASE BY 9.1 MB/D IN 2020 - OPEC
Crude Oil Price Movements
Spot crude oil prices rebounded in May from low levels registered a month earlier, as physical market fundamentals improved significantly. The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value rose by $7.51, or 42.5%, m-o-m, to stand at $25.17/b. Crude oil futures prices also bounced back in May, amid renewed optimism on the outlook of global oil market fundamentals and expectations for a further recovery of oil demand and tightening global supply. ICE Brent increased by $5.78, or 21.7%, m-o-m to average $32.41/b, and NYMEX WTI soared by $11.83, or 70.8%, m-o-m to average $28.53/b. The contango structure of oil futures prices flattened considerably over the month in all three markets, suggesting that the supply-demand fundamentals are gradually improving. Hedge funds and other money managers turned more positive about the outlook for crude oil prices and continued to raise their combined futures and options net long positions in both ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI contracts.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecast remains unchanged, declining by 3.4% y-o-y in 2020, following global economic growth of 2.9% in 2019. The major economies’ forecasts remain unchanged this month, except for India. The US is forecast to contract by 5.2% in 2020, following growth of 2.3% in 2019. An even larger decline of 8.0% is expected in the Euro-zone in 2020, compared to growth of 1.2% in 2019. Japan is forecast to contract by 5.1% in 2020, comparing to growth of 0.7% in 2019. China’s 2020 GDP is forecast to grow by 1.3%, following growth of 6.1% in 2019. India’s forecast was revised down to decline by 0.8%, a sharp slowdown from downwardly revised growth of 4.9% in 2019. Brazil’s economy is forecast to contract by 6.0% in 2020, following growth of 1.1% in 2019. Russia’s economy is forecast to contract by 4.5% in 2020, after growth of 1.3% in 2019, not only due to COVID-19, but also because of the considerable decline in oil prices.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand is projected to decrease by 9.1 mb/d in 2020, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. The COVID-19 pandemic has negatively affected global economic activities, eliminating global oil demand growth potential and leading to a y-o-y decline of 6.4 mb/d in 1Q20 and by 17.3 mb/d y-o-y in 2Q20. Transportation fuels are projected to be under pressure during 2020 as lockdowns in various countries particularly the US, Europe, India and the Middle East reduce demand for gasoline and jet fuel, as air travel and distances travelled anticipated to significantly decline compared with a year earlier. Furthermore, decreased manufacturing activities, compared with the previous year, will limit industrial fuel requirements. Petrochemical feedstock is expected to be driven by slower end-user requirements for plastics and plastic products, compared to previous years. Considering the large uncertainties going forward, new data and developments may warrant further revisions in the near term. For 2019, world oil demand growth is kept unchanged at 0.83 mb/d as OECD oil demand declined by 0.10 mb/d while non-OECD oil demand increased by 0.93 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2020 (including processing gains) is revised up by 0.3 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is now forecast to decline by 3.2 mb/d y-o-y. The revision is based on oil production estimations for April and May in non-OPEC countries participating in Declaration of Cooperation (DoC). Strong conformity with the voluntary production adjustments by the 10 non-OPEC participating countries in the DoC led to a drop in crude oil output of more than 2.59 mb/d in May, while OPEC-10 cut 6.25 mb/d m-o-m. At the same time, preliminary oil production outside the DoC showed a decrease by 2.0 mb/d in April and furthermore by 0.8 mb/d in May, mainly in the US and Canada. Oil supply in 2020 is forecast to show growth only in Norway, Brazil, Guyana and Australia. Non-OPEC liquids production growth in 2019 was revised up by 0.01 mb/d owing to a minor upward revision in Latin America’s production in 4Q19 and is now estimated to have grown by 2.03 mb/d to average 65.03 mb/d for the year. OPEC NGLs are estimated to have declined by 0.08 mb/d y-o-y in 2019 to average 5.26 mb/d, while the preliminary 2020 forecast indicates a decline of 0.03 mb/d to average 5.23 mb/d. OPEC crude oil production in May decreased by 6.30 tb/d m-o-m to average 24.19 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
Refinery margins globally came under heavy pressure and plummeted to record lows on the back of oil product gluts amid stronger feedstock prices. The middle section of the barrel suffered the most as the manufacturing, freight and distribution systems still operate at reduced rates. Although gasoline markets showed some upside, owing to a gradual recovery in mobility as the pandemic restrictions continue to be eased, this was insufficient to prevent the hard downfall in refining economics.
Tanker Market
Dirty tanker rates in May fell from the high levels seen since mid-March. Production adjustments by OPEC and participating non-OPEC countries, as well as other major producers have eased the pressure seen on demand for VLCCs. A decline in product exports amid COVID-19 lockdowns have also kept clean tanker rates subdued, with both reduced refinery runs and weak product demand limiting cargoes. Floating storage has provided some support to both dirty and clean rates, however, levels are seen to be unwinding faster-than-expected.
Crude and Refined Products Trade
Preliminary data for May shows US crude imports recovering slightly to 6.0 mb/d following the arrival of long-haul volumes from the Middle East. US crude exports remained broadly steady at 3.2 mb/d, although a considerable share was headed to floating storage and oversea inventories. Product exports fell sharply in May, accelerating the decline that started in March, as COVID-19 disruptions constricted product demand in Latin America. After bottoming out at 9.7 mb/d in March, China’s crude imports picked up in April, averaging 9.9 mb/d. Preliminary customs data indicates crude imports hit a new record high of 11.3 mb/d in May. Product exports from China reached a new record high of 2.08 mb/d in April, although tanker tracking data points to a sharp fall in exports in the coming months. India’s crude imports dipped in April to average 4.2 mb/d, impacted by the government-ordered lockdown over the month. India’s product imports experienced a continued decline, weighed down by similar factors, averaging below 1.0 mb/d for the first time this year. India’s product exports edged slightly higher in April, as refiners looked to international markets to drain excessively high inventories.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary April data showed that total OECD commercial oil stocks rose by 107.7 mb m-o-m to stand at 3,069 mb. This is 184 mb higher than the same time one year ago and 140.6 mb above the latest five-year average. Within the components, crude and products stocks rose by 58.1 mb and 49.6 mb m-o-m, respectively. OECD crude stocks stood at 57.9 mb above the latest five-year average, while product stocks exhibited a surplus of 82.6 mb compared to the latest five-year average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks fell by 4.2 days m-o-m in April to stand at 80.7 days. This is 19.9 days above April 2019, and 18.6 days above the latest five-year average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude in 2019 is revised down by 0.5 mb/d from the previous assessment, standing at 29.4 mb/d, which is 1.1 mb/d lower than the 2018 level. Demand for OPEC crude in 2020 is also revised down by 0.7 mb/d from the previous month, standing at 23.6 mb/d, which is around 5.8 mb/d lower than in the previous year.
Source: OPEC
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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